Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef9ad7b214ecd9c7d89710f2f587e09f6d19958c6a3425a2b15e790cbebfa0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 48c | 2,993$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.46 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 2,657$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.53 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 37c | 2,045$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.63 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 55c | 1,817$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.94 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Under | 58c | 1,521$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 611.22$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.26 | 692 | 52.3%362 W · 330 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 50c | 599.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.92 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 66c | 479.88$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 1,306 | 56.9%743 W · 563 L | +67.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 340.02$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 54c | 299.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.83 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 71c | 280$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 53c | 198.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 53c | 189.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Over | 40c | 172$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 72c | 152.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 31c | 90.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 52c | 87.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 1,109 | 46.2%512 W · 597 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d9…a1e4backed Under | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…122dbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 32c | 46.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Over | 52c | 39.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 53c | 32.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 45c | 30.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 59c | 28.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 48c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 47c | 22.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 54c | 22.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…22f0backed Under | 47c | 22.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Over | 52c | 19.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.