Other European Leagues · resolved market
SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9631365912cb984940506fd388be491d28c1f53d5b477aa11051037ddd4f09ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,096 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.99 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 1,559$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.23 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 30c | 833$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Under | 65c | 409.94$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 61c | 399.91$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Over | 35c | 248.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Under | 64c | 153$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…8640backed Over | 35c | 140.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 36c | 138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…8107backed Over | 35c | 135.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…1ab8backed Over | 35c | 133.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 123.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 107.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…3d15backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa839…6f8cbacked Under | 65c | 83.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…7f28backed Under | 65c | 83.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1977backed Under | 65c | 82.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 33c | 74.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 39c | 29.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 57c | 18.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 3.5this page
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 2.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SBV Excelsior (-2.5)SC Heerenveen won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-1.5)SBV Excelsior won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-2.5)SBV Excelsior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.