Other European Leagues · resolved market
SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2722835b35a460bec932672f2a2fec4bdc92095bc74b0a2c89084b63b658420
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,635 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,430$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.82 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 42c | 1,325$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.9 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 36c | 854.95$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.49 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 64c | 620.79$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.79 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 53c | 593.26$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 59c | 559.32$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.32 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 55c | 447.01$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.15 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 57c | 303.08$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 39c | 294.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.66 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 58c | 220$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 67c | 180.26$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 38c | 171.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 59c | 170.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 266 | 53.4%142 W · 124 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 155$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 63c | 143.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 138.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 105.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 57c | 96.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…3d15backed Over | 54c | 92.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 68c | 86.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 58c | 86.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 58.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 49.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 43c | 34.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…770ebacked Over | 58c | 34.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Over | 64c | 28.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 25.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc078…f854backed Over | 58c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 46c | 22.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 2.5this page
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5Over won
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 3.5Under won
- SBV Excelsior vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SBV Excelsior (-2.5)SC Heerenveen won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-1.5)SBV Excelsior won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-2.5)SBV Excelsior won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.