Tennis · resolved market
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W75 Bytom (Poland), clay: Federica Urgesi vs Justina Mikulskyte
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x965e801f623c56b898fed256a466db125486d0fc61d8e093d72c571452890744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Justina Mikulskyteof Federica Urgesi, Justina Mikulskyte
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Federica Urgesi | 45c | 1,709$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.21 | 1,150 | 45.4%522 W · 628 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Justina Mikulskyte | 18c | 1,017$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.94 | 1,750 | 50.2%878 W · 872 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Justina Mikulskyte | 47c | 1,002$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.86 | 9,267 | 36.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L | -199.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…cd12backed Federica Urgesi | 36c | 549.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Justina Mikulskyte | 18c | 513.49$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.86 | 3,952 | 55.1%2,176 W · 1,776 L | +107.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Federica Urgesi | 65c | 279.83$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 8,921 | 42.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L | -169.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Justina Mikulskyte | 15c | 239.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.28 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Federica Urgesi | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Federica Urgesi | 45c | 177.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 553 | 51.9%287 W · 266 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Justina Mikulskyte | 19c | 170.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.16 | 1,039 | 49.9%518 W · 521 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Justina Mikulskyte | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 652 | 65.8%429 W · 223 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Federica Urgesi | 70c | 141.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 8,127 | 50.8%4,126 W · 4,001 L | +84.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Justina Mikulskyte | 18c | 127.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 336 | 57.7%194 W · 142 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Justina Mikulskyte | 19c | 126.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 440 | 52.3%230 W · 210 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Justina Mikulskyte | 19c | 126.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 909 | 54.6%496 W · 413 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Justina Mikulskyte | 19c | 124.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 992 | 55.9%555 W · 437 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Justina Mikulskyte | 62c | 116.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1,112 | 57.9%644 W · 468 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Federica Urgesi | 40c | 114.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 3,303 | 40.2%1,329 W · 1,974 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Justina Mikulskyte | 19c | 88.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 564 | 56.9%321 W · 243 L | +17.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Justina Mikulskyte | 43c | 87.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 2,076 | 52.9%1,099 W · 977 L | +33.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Justina Mikulskyte | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 1,001 | 55.3%554 W · 447 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Justina Mikulskyte | 19c | 68.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Federica Urgesi | 38c | 66.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 536 | 47%252 W · 284 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Federica Urgesi | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 647 | 26.4%171 W · 476 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Justina Mikulskyte | 62c | 61.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 344 | 48.8%168 W · 176 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…c4f4backed Federica Urgesi | 35c | 58.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Justina Mikulskyte | 54c | 42.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 617 | 46.2%285 W · 332 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Federica Urgesi | 67c | 36.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,856 | 46.8%868 W · 988 L | -55.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Federica Urgesi | 28c | 35.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 391 | 74.2%290 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Federica Urgesi | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4,523 | 51.7%2,340 W · 2,183 L | +135.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…000ebacked Federica Urgesi | 45c | 25.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…ea93backed Federica Urgesi | 73c | 16.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Federica Urgesi | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6,584 | 54.4%3,584 W · 3,000 L | +286.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.