Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x967d8f367dc3f70761a2819835e2968328a5c9a79a621fb5e23d4b13cceafaf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SV 07 Elversbergof SV 07 Elversberg, SC Preußen Münster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf57e…bbd6backed SC Preußen Münster | 42c | 4,430$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed SV 07 Elversberg | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked SV 07 Elversberg | 58c | 1,584$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.35 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed SV 07 Elversberg | 62c | 564.52$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked SV 07 Elversberg | 59c | 558.33$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.33 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked SC Preußen Münster | 41c | 244.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed SV 07 Elversberg | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked SC Preußen Münster | 38c | 115.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed SC Preußen Münster | 38c | 93.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked SV 07 Elversberg | 59c | 67.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked SC Preußen Münster | 40c | 66.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed SV 07 Elversberg | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed SC Preußen Münster | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-1.5)this page
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SV 07 Elversberg (-2.5)SV 07 Elversberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.