Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs Inner Circle (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96a352ed9f94f8a9f11981e88c103feb4183eb8ce0980c9716fa943ce3de2f7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09df…491fbacked 1win | 77c | 6,529$4,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…50bcbacked Inner Circle | 1c | 5,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Inner Circle | 23c | 5,487$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.91 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Inner Circle | 23c | 3,580$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.85 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Inner Circle | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…5a98backed Inner Circle | 30c | 1,460$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…aea0backed Inner Circle | 26c | 1,369$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…5a76backed Inner Circle | 30c | 1,361$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…7743backed Inner Circle | 25c | 1,320$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed 1win | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed 1win | 75c | 1,263$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.69 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…7f16backed Inner Circle | 30c | 1,235$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…d2a7backed Inner Circle | 26c | 1,227$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…20f0backed Inner Circle | 26c | 1,219$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…2c59backed Inner Circle | 26c | 1,206$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Inner Circle | 7c | 911.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Inner Circle | 26c | 899.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.93 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f5…e2ddbacked 1win | 70c | 783$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3a…a68cbacked 1win | 70c | 730$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…deaebacked 1win | 70c | 730$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…2922backed 1win | 74c | 686$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…198fbacked 1win | 74c | 683$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.58 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…1d11backed 1win | 76c | 651.32$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…0df7backed 1win | 76c | 651.3$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…9687backed 1win | 74c | 639$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…1f57backed 1win | 70c | 628$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed 1win | 79c | 623.48$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc090…ec1fbacked 1win | 74c | 619$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655e…7e3cbacked 1win | 70c | 607$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…663dbacked 1win | 74c | 588$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ae…8fbdbacked 1win | 74c | 587$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657d…bff1backed 1win | 70c | 578$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…7eafbacked 1win | 74c | 575$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…df1cbacked 1win | 74c | 544$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed 1win | 75c | 522.51$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.63 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5f…d393backed 1win | 74c | 474.85$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked 1win | 79c | 348$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…17ffbacked 1win | 75c | 331.33$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…c86cbacked 1win | 76c | 314.82$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6084backed 1win | 76c | 276.32$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46b…9a5ebacked 1win | 79c | 236.47$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…1cf4backed Inner Circle | 24c | 231.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed 1win | 78c | 230$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…f6fbbacked 1win | 74c | 203$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…20eebacked Inner Circle | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Inner Circle | 23c | 165.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3c…6a39backed Inner Circle | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…3348backed 1win | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed 1win | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Inner Circle | 24c | 129.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 24c | 128.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…7f2cbacked 1win | 74c | 114$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…bfddbacked 1win | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…a38bbacked Inner Circle | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed 1win | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed 1win | 77c | 82.79$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…2149backed 1win | 74c | 79.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Inner Circle | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed 1win | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked 1win | 79c | 63.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…9813backed 1win | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…ba79backed Inner Circle | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Inner Circle | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…a496backed Inner Circle | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed Inner Circle | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…6974backed Inner Circle | 25c | 59.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 80c | 56.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Inner Circle | 23c | 51.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Inner Circle | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Inner Circle | 23c | 47.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked 1win | 74c | 38.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed 1win | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked 1win | 79c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed 1win | 76c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…e6cabacked 1win | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked 1win | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…f072backed 1win | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs Inner Circle (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.