Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2025-10-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96c87cef71264410e922e0847d09dfcf36f4d7697530e45b495e94e3267a12f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 47c | 30,000$14,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,900 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 53c | 21,197$11,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,234.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 33c | 13,184$4,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,287.13 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 2,704$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.52 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 49c | 2,129$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 46c | 1,537$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.51 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 54c | 1,496$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.96 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed No | 57c | 1,309$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,010$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 47c | 812.47$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.62 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 48c | 671.87$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 49c | 637.02$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.4 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 43c | 566.71$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.03 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 444$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.64 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Yes | 43c | 279.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 43c | 234.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.13 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 50c | 232.61$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 47c | 214.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…c52cbacked Yes | 46c | 206.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 45c | 133.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 59c | 125$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 41c | 106.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed No | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked No | 59c | 76.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Yes | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…c3d3backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 47c | 30.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…2354backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…d8d2backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 47c | 23.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2025-10-22?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2025-10-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.