Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96cf1e2c374d234e43434fd9148d9224eea19e21542d2319e4714ecc8c866d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakutou Brothersof Team Refuser, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd50c…76c3backed Yakutou Brothers | 51c | 680.38$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.38 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Refuser | 48c | 530.38$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.58 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Refuser | 53c | 198.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Team Refuser | 23c | 96.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yakutou Brothers | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Refuser | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Refuser | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Yakutou Brothers | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yakutou Brothers | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Team Refuser | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) - ESL Challenger China PlayoffsYakutou Brothers won
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 WinnerYakutou Brothers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.