Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) - ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6908f66f53a757e8f056411e440c1f65ec813324b07acd6a2df198a360a1c187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakutou Brothersof Team Refuser, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Team Refuser | 20c | 638.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Team Refuser | 25c | 510.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yakutou Brothers | 70c | 502.05$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Yakutou Brothers | 80c | 380$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Team Refuser | 21c | 355$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Refuser | 49c | 339.83$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1b12backed Team Refuser | 47c | 297.39$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…2b44backed Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 265$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…0ae6backed Team Refuser | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…5510backed Team Refuser | 43c | 257.91$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…0bdcbacked Team Refuser | 50c | 255$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Team Refuser | 20c | 250.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Team Refuser | 20c | 250.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…5a90backed Yakutou Brothers | 80c | 250.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda81…0c41backed Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…83b0backed Team Refuser | 72c | 239.82$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.17 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…3469backed Team Refuser | 47c | 225.9$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 215 | 51.6%111 W · 104 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…8bacbacked Team Refuser | 34c | 212.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yakutou Brothers | 55c | 211.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Team Refuser | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Yakutou Brothers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa770…c45cbacked Yakutou Brothers | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 168.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Team Refuser | 49c | 162.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Refuser | 24c | 153.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Yakutou Brothers | 41c | 128.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…4982backed Yakutou Brothers | 79c | 127.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Refuser | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Yakutou Brothers | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yakutou Brothers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Team Refuser | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Yakutou Brothers | 66c | 88.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yakutou Brothers | 59c | 86.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 138 | 27.5%38 W · 100 L | -15.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Team Refuser | 20c | 80.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Yakutou Brothers | 62c | 74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakutou Brothers | 56c | 71.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yakutou Brothers | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…9168backed Yakutou Brothers | 67c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…93eabacked Yakutou Brothers | 79c | 54.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Team Refuser | 28c | 41.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…29d8backed Yakutou Brothers | 61c | 40.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Yakutou Brothers | 69c | 36.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked Team Refuser | 31c | 36.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yakutou Brothers | 76c | 35.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked Yakutou Brothers | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yakutou Brothers | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Team Refuser | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…f540backed Yakutou Brothers | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fb…3e92backed Yakutou Brothers | 72c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…fc61backed Yakutou Brothers | 74c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) - ESL Challenger China Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 WinnerYakutou Brothers won
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerYakutou Brothers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.