Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfabac6e7b5277b4a6f0abc2b42496f91dbfedfbe6dd5df9fd84631e1e6d8b97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakutou Brothersof Team Refuser, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Yakutou Brothers | 57c | 5,805$3,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,521.04 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Refuser | 45c | 1,912$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.21 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14a…4254backed Team Refuser | 43c | 1,408$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Team Refuser | 41c | 785.85$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.2 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Refuser | 43c | 717.67$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…83b0backed Team Refuser | 41c | 282.93$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Refuser | 51c | 265$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Team Refuser | 44c | 227.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…433dbacked Team Refuser | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Refuser | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa993…1c15backed Yakutou Brothers | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yakutou Brothers | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Team Refuser | 45c | 39.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Yakutou Brothers | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Yakutou Brothers | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) - ESL Challenger China PlayoffsYakutou Brothers won
- Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerYakutou Brothers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.