Tennis · resolved market
ITF W35 Verbier Women: Noelia Manta vs Elsa Bonelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96d6a3f1a8b2226a5200557ea681ed35fde8417e961485a5a13bec24f36e84a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elsa Bonelliof Noelia Manta, Elsa Bonelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Noelia Manta | 40c | 581.7$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.13 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Elsa Bonelli | 60c | 507.04$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.82 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Noelia Manta | 42c | 465.89$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Elsa Bonelli | 64c | 294.05$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Elsa Bonelli | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…dbfdbacked Noelia Manta | 33c | 184.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Elsa Bonelli | 58c | 103.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Elsa Bonelli | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 398 | 44.2%176 W · 222 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Noelia Manta | 39c | 77.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Elsa Bonelli | 61c | 56.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Elsa Bonelli | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Noelia Manta | 43c | 47.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed Elsa Bonelli | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 372 | 66.7%248 W · 124 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Noelia Manta | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Noelia Manta | 32c | 38.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Elsa Bonelli | 71c | 33.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…2f66backed Elsa Bonelli | 60c | 33.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 216 | 61.1%132 W · 84 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Noelia Manta | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…2465backed Elsa Bonelli | 64c | 23.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Elsa Bonelli | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Elsa Bonelli | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Elsa Bonelli | 76c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.