Tennis · resolved market
ATP Toronto – McDonald vs. Lehecka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9706cc8db891481385f586051d3f1c3ed5cb69601f9879c9e51b9cf16163926d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leheckaof McDonald, Lehecka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed McDonald | 35c | 7,570$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,667.08 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Lehecka | 64c | 7,175$4,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.36 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed McDonald | 31c | 1,400$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Lehecka | 67c | 1,000$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked McDonald | 32c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Lehecka | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed McDonald | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed McDonald | 26c | 189.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Lehecka | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Lehecka | 73c | 136.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Lehecka | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Lehecka | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Lehecka | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Lehecka | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Lehecka | 71c | 56.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Lehecka | 74c | 51.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed McDonald | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.