MLB · resolved market
Mariners vs. Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9721e76f93066bd1d3edffe5da4fc491edd558a3eec244c4ecb40e2efa30b097
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 49c | 1,443$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.05 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 1,188$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.87 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Over | 49c | 604.36$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.65 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 456.27$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.7 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Under | 49c | 400$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 45c | 366$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f77…3f95backed Over | 51c | 207.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…2c1abacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Over | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 49c | 167.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…45afbacked Under | 51c | 121.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…19febacked Over | 52c | 121.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…74fbbacked Under | 51c | 114.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…3e3cbacked Under | 49c | 111.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…5e7cbacked Under | 50c | 104.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc1…201bbacked Over | 51c | 103.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…fff7backed Under | 51c | 90.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303f…4c97backed Under | 51c | 78.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…f218backed Over | 52c | 75.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…3120backed Under | 51c | 72.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…a768backed Over | 52c | 67.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448a…f2b7backed Over | 52c | 66.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…981dbacked Over | 52c | 63.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 53c | 51.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…65febacked Under | 51c | 30.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mariners vs. Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Mariners vs. RaysRays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.