Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of May 18 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97aca9d04d678db2d83b898ff723cf888336a0198439c90a60faec63396328a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 1,995$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.85 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…d64dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,687$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 5c | 906.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 70c | 815.61$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.65 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 33c | 726.78$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.67 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 44c | 545.05$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.75 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked No | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 41c | 299.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.71 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 155.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…d2d3backed Yes | 15c | 108.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed No | 45c | 47.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 70c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of May 18 2026?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of May 18 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of May 18 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of May 18 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of May 18 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of May 18 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of May 18 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.