Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98139ef6b372ce0b7960985bd5546372783b1861e36d7b66b02dd3b4f543d353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 58c | 12,367$7,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,142.06 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 48c | 10,161$4,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,909.06 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…7acbbacked No | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 49c | 4,922$2,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.48 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked No | 39c | 2,064$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…e2c0backed No | 40c | 2,010$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.6 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…0b58backed No | 10c | 2,005$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 45c | 1,736$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…d7d4backed No | 51c | 1,262$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.7 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 64c | 625$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…fbecbacked No | 22c | 400$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 64c | 227.87$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 19c | 220$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…fba3backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…7dcbbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 22-28?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 September 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 September 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 22-28?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 September 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 September 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.