Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98223e5b9ade0ed64b3c04d6c9c811bb301cff094ce3567b99ff9c7db7f368c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Under | 51c | 2,680$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 17c | 1,068$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.6 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 50c | 998.16$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.94 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Over | 45c | 799.95$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.7 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Under | 40c | 622.75$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 51c | 541.88$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.36 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 54c | 391.17$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.76 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 20c | 382.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 28c | 299.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 273$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 60c | 188.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.12 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 185.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 59c | 167.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 60c | 161.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 150.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 147.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 34c | 139.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 119.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 60c | 94.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 23c | 68.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 65.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 49c | 47.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 45c | 44.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 49c | 37.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 63c | 36.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 49c | 35.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | +13.3wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Under | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 49c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 50c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.