Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9c899bfdf68159feb308504792ce0b7138f4806edfb8dd79198003f469bc0a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 3,518$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.43 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 48c | 2,780$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.54 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 57c | 854.56$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 850.65$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.26 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 516.36$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.52 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 40c | 489.8$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 58c | 345.32$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.07 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 255.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 41c | 235.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 40c | 121.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 98.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 62c | 96.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 34c | 96.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 58c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 55c | 81.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945b…f3ebbacked Under | 68c | 50.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 34c | 42.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 40c | 40.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 61c | 39.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 38.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 41c | 35.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 51c | 30.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 88 | 73.9%65 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 52c | 28.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10aa…20e0backed Under | 55c | 26.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 53c | 25.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 49c | 22.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 67c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.