Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x982eacc096a7082a5514b005ecb4b9b5b2644da37d7f7d7163847c4ebdf08e38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 670.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…974bbacked Yes | 39c | 242.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 61c | 198.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 64c | 191.58$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 169.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 32c | 163.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 21c | 128$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 125.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 37c | 98.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 95.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 24c | 90.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 59c | 89.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 37c | 85.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 75c | 79.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 38c | 73.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 72.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 67.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 60.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 59.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 35c | 59.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 36c | 52.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 45.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 31c | 45.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 74c | 42.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 37.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 55c | 37.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed No | 73c | 33.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 35c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 39c | 29.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 72c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 53c | 26.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 71c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a77…50e6backed No | 69c | 20.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…0201backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 70c | 19.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…3b5cbacked No | 76c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.