Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b5dab89e9f3bf0185b22eea47cb1ff2201e84e34bd982ab2f279ea01687ea4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfca3…93eabacked No | 0c | 14,481$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 23c | 1,150$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.98 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 11c | 701.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 9c | 532.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 505.57$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 22c | 499.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 13c | 379.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 76c | 364.52$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 326.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 20c | 314.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 70c | 267.51$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 245.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 47c | 239.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…1231backed Yes | 80c | 235.29$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 44c | 211.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 201.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.72 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 28c | 197.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 49c | 188.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 75c | 182.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 167.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 59c | 144.73$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…bcd3backed No | 24c | 133.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 43c | 133.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 80c | 131.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 123.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 76c | 112.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 54c | 109$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 108.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 106.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e225backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 13c | 95.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 39c | 90.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 56c | 83.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 55c | 79.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 54c | 79.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 63c | 78.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 47c | 74.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 15c | 70.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…ca1dbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 38c | 69.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 32c | 65.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 64.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 38c | 49.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 25c | 49.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked No | 28c | 49.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 59c | 48.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 31c | 47.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fa…c639backed Yes | 63c | 47.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…1e83backed Yes | 46c | 41.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +90%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 41.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 40.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 48c | 40.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 42c | 40.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed No | 62c | 39.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 38.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 50c | 37.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 38c | 35.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 39c | 34.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 47c | 30.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 55c | 29.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 69c | 29.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 42c | 29.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 27.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 44c | 26.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 25.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 61c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 22.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 67c | 22.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 22.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 21.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c24…81e9backed Yes | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d2…2476backed Yes | 59c | 19.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 65c | 18.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed No | 65c | 18.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 63c | 17.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.