MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x986ab24490fd467a8288459dc5e723f25bdf7c559fe248e6f0a73d34ac0e6b9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 44c | 18,022$7,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,171.6 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 58c | 6,150$3,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,537.03 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 4,187$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,377.81 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 54c | 3,979$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.53 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 56c | 3,333$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.47 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under | 56c | 2,500$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 53c | 1,755$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.19 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 57c | 1,105$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.85 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 35c | 999.38$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.92 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 56c | 800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…4dc9backed Under | 80c | 435.84$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b7…e9babacked Under | 77c | 403.9$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed Over | 44c | 346.4$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Under | 58c | 257.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.23 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6d…1e3dbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d4…47d8backed Under | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Red Sox vs. RaysRays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.