Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Griekspoor (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9892e82d62043e3e60e93852eb46816cce22afef815c9fa5867badbf13097217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Griekspoor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6170…f3fdbacked Musetti | 57c | 344.37$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 282 | 62.4%176 W · 106 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3216…0cc7backed Griekspoor | 44c | 229$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Griekspoor | 43c | 199.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 365 | 35.1%128 W · 237 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f2…e0c9backed Musetti | 57c | 171.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Griekspoor | 42c | 162$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Griekspoor | 45c | 120.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Griekspoor | 46c | 104.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Musetti | 58c | 99.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Musetti | 53c | 86.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Musetti | 58c | 85.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Griekspoor | 42c | 82.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Musetti | 55c | 44.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Musetti | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Musetti | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 452 | 51.8%234 W · 218 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…adbabacked Musetti | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Griekspoor (+1.5)this page
- Griekspoor vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Griekspoor vs. Musetti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo MusettiLorenzo Musetti won
- Tallon Griekspoor vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.