TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will "Strait of Hormuz" or "Hormuz Strait" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,555

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,555 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb3a…a2aabacked Yes55c60$33 inWon+$271478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+90.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes63c60$38 inWon+$22.12759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No43c56.44$24 inLost-$24714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-67.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7169…3ca6backed No30c47.73$14 inLost-$14.172343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed No47c25$12 inLost-$11.654736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon+$91478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.