TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
CA Newell's Old Boysof CA Independiente, CA Newell's Old Boys
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,587 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed CA Independiente32c2,477$796 inLost-$795.992,28134.3%782 W · 1,499 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed CA Newell's Old Boys67c2,237$1,499 inWon+$738.1734747.6%165 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed CA Newell's Old Boys70c494.5$346 inWon+$148.452,51439%980 W · 1,534 L-32.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed CA Independiente46c434.78$200 inLost-$20011039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29d3…ccf6backed CA Independiente33c160.61$53 inLost-$531637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed CA Newell's Old Boys67c133.6$90 inWon+$43.588,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked CA Independiente48c100$48 inLost-$4812338.2%47 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed CA Independiente32c83.45$27 inLost-$26.852,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed CA Independiente34c73.66$25 inLost-$24.82,33551.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed CA Independiente26c62.8$17 inLost-$16.5395155.8%531 W · 420 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed CA Independiente26c62.79$17 inLost-$16.5360156.2%338 W · 263 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82fb…0b6ebacked CA Newell's Old Boys66c61.36$40 inWon+$20.869158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed CA Newell's Old Boys62c60.29$38 inWon+$22.751,36244.9%611 W · 751 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed CA Independiente38c50$19 inLost-$1935246.9%165 W · 187 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…6e8dbacked CA Newell's Old Boys66c45.45$30 inWon+$15.454862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed CA Newell's Old Boys65c25.83$17 inWon+$9.0415364.1%98 W · 55 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed CA Newell's Old Boys70c16.8$12 inWon+$5.049350.5%47 W · 46 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.