South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe60923eb83d7921eda4146bcd8d9a1d4285fe0c356c3fb2727973c2ff7bda994
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 28c | 9,835$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.05 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 7,591$5,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 64c | 1,182$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.05 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 486.07$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.17 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 72c | 429.94$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 71c | 376.43$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Yes | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Yes | 42c | 152.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 24c | 96.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…504bbacked Yes | 43c | 69.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 63c | 62.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 70c | 60.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 63c | 57.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 55c | 56.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Yes | 28c | 51.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 42c | 49.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Yes | 40c | 46.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 72c | 39.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed No | 60c | 37.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 41c | 33.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 57c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed No | 65c | 19.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed No | 55c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 56c | 18.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-2.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.