South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07ce052eb73d2c61dd6b898126610f6e1bd0b7c682f44b4fcdd6d87847124f73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 58c | 10,000$5,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 8,019$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 7,963$5,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200.67 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over | 43c | 4,944$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.83 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 3,360$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.75 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 56c | 3,127$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.56 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 1,761$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.87 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 958.72$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.5 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Over | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 37c | 270.19$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 37c | 270.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked Under | 57c | 240.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 42c | 186.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 42c | 160.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 23c | 107.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…79d3backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 44c | 87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 40c | 84.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 32c | 73.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 43c | 59.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 26c | 57.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 36c | 57.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Over | 42c | 47.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 55c | 40.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…3b4cbacked Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Over | 33c | 30.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Under | 65c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 26.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 61c | 19.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 80cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-2.5)CA Newell's Old Boys won
- Spread: CA Newell's Old Boys (-1.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.