South American Leagues · resolved market
Mazatlán FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98a8845550c87d4b1abc1e66c4f584345daec664a8f612ac5e8a4f6be24d8c63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 3,290$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.71 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 64c | 2,900$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.87 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 36c | 2,498$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.15 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 922$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.8 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 64c | 846.97$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.91 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 530.13$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.66 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 64c | 402.05$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 57c | 318.22$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 38c | 202.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 13c | 124.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 91.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 36c | 86.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 70c | 84.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 33c | 77.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Over | 66c | 71.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 67.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 38c | 53.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 42.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Under | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Under | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 64c | 21.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mazatlán FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5this page
- Mazatlán FC vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mazatlán FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mazatlán FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mazatlán FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.