CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: BIG vs illwill - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ceaccc4d980c899eee3c9f0061e370a77e2bbab7aad49405dd478fda554cac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BIGof BIG, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked illwill | 27c | 8,170$2,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.18 | 157 | 60.5%95 W · 62 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked BIG | 71c | 7,485$5,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.37 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec2…3987backed illwill | 1c | 1,695$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked BIG | 65c | 1,161$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.75 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed illwill | 27c | 974.99$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.35 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed BIG | 74c | 905.65$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.15 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed BIG | 73c | 307.01$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed BIG | 67c | 255.26$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 198 | 50.5%100 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 39c | 230.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…8796backed BIG | 48c | 224.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 282 | 54.6%154 W · 128 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc414…2f6abacked BIG | 78c | 206.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked BIG | 75c | 153.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked illwill | 40c | 135.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6822…6238backed illwill | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed illwill | 30c | 126.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed illwill | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked BIG | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 37c | 79.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed BIG | 73c | 77.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 193 | 42%81 W · 112 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed BIG | 72c | 74.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed BIG | 73c | 61.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c33…d620backed BIG | 75c | 53.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed illwill | 28c | 53.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdef8…9444backed illwill | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked BIG | 73c | 29.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked BIG | 71c | 27.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a2…dc15backed BIG | 74c | 25.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed BIG | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x560e…59b1backed BIG | 77c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs illwill - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series PlayoffsBIG won
- Counter-Strike: BIG vs illwill - Map 1 WinnerBIG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: BIG (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5)BIG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.