Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98e2865ad91de8463c1a6da243a77b64e9efe3e9f6cdbdef2c69081064cbe357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 445.67$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 23c | 291.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 214$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 163.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 15c | 127.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 124.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 57c | 124$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 54c | 120.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 116.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 20c | 115.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 18c | 113.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 107.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 71c | 103.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…2e89backed No | 76c | 98.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 92.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 88.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 40c | 86.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 81.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 74.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 33c | 68.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 22c | 62.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 58.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 74c | 49.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 64c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 64c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed No | 74c | 46.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 41.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 30.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 79c | 29.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 77c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 75c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 21.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d5…918dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 80c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 73c | 13.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 78c | 13.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.