Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630916fd2e13424c14bee99ef4fa176a4b23884dad2d25daf54625d648a1b965
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 69c | 1,026$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.41 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 33c | 378.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 369.02$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.93 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 363$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 322$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 58c | 278.02$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 12c | 230$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 194.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 179.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 37c | 153$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 74c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 31c | 130$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 129.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 55c | 124$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 33c | 120$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 117.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 116.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 35c | 86.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 80.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 61c | 78.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 36c | 77.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 74.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 71.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 40c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 42c | 67.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 65.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 63.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 38c | 63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 31c | 62.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 43c | 57.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 36c | 55.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 76c | 53.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 32c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 59c | 50.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 27c | 49.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 41c | 48.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 42c | 47.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 34c | 47.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 46.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 71c | 45.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 68c | 44.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 61c | 44.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 44.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 32c | 43.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 37c | 43.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 40.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 25c | 40.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 40.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked No | 66c | 37.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 37.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 35.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 34.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…2656backed Yes | 31c | 32.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 63c | 31.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 65c | 30.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 37c | 30.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 42c | 30.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 29.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9988…b28ebacked No | 66c | 28.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 28.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 58c | 28.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 76c | 26.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 70c | 25.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 25.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…f5debacked Yes | 70c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 18.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 69c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 62c | 16.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or higher on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.