College Football · resolved market
Ball State vs. Miami (OH): O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98eac4bdf45eb434edd944acfd991e70c0688d41b09483f6b168747e0089f6a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 22,539$11,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,269.5 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 18,247$9,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,125.69 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 1,924$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.81 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 1,237$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.06 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,223$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.76 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 48c | 1,125$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 46c | 540$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 389.81$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.91 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Over | 50c | 380$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 281$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.12 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 52c | 208.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 52c | 193.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…df92backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ball State vs. Miami (OH): O/U 41.5this page
- Ball State vs. Miami (OH)Miami (OH) won
- Ball State vs. Miami (OH): O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-17.5)Miami (OH) won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.