College Football · resolved market
Ball State vs. Miami (OH)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfceab0c05f923badf18e9e4b5b674b979f53b1b07a0378a4961072ddbe23bb62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami (OH)of Ball State, Miami (OH)
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Ball State | 11c | 21,019$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.07 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Ball State | 11c | 20,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ball State | 11c | 11,318$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.97 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Ball State | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ball State | 12c | 8,947$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.07 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ball State | 11c | 6,398$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.84 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Ball State | 10c | 3,670$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.82 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ball State | 12c | 3,575$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.71 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Ball State | 13c | 1,800$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Ball State | 13c | 1,542$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…5941backed Ball State | 12c | 1,417$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Ball State | 12c | 1,205$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Ball State | 11c | 1,181$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Ball State | 12c | 883.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2e…dde1backed Ball State | 13c | 798.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Ball State | 12c | 699.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Ball State | 14c | 649.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ball State | 13c | 641$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ball State | 9c | 637.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Ball State | 10c | 554.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed Ball State | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Ball State | 15c | 366.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c25…7633backed Ball State | 6c | 338.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Ball State | 12c | 260.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Ball State | 18c | 238.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…fa61backed Ball State | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ball State | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Ball State | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…a6dbbacked Ball State | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Ball State | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ball State vs. Miami (OH)this page
- Ball State vs. Miami (OH): O/U 41.5Over won
- Ball State vs. Miami (OH): O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Miami (OH) (-17.5)Miami (OH) won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.