Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ff7ccb25a628aa789b4848e601d5624c7c52e2999ca948836b98cab4579e54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Kostyuk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,324 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kostyuk | 30c | 570.62$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.54 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…6851backed Rybakina | 60c | 536.95$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Rybakina | 71c | 426.37$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Rybakina | 59c | 422.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.85 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kostyuk | 40c | 406.21$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kostyuk | 41c | 341$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Rybakina | 60c | 331.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kostyuk | 40c | 282.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Rybakina | 60c | 166.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Rybakina | 61c | 139.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kostyuk | 38c | 122.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Rybakina | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked Rybakina | 76c | 86.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Kostyuk | 41c | 84.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Rybakina | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Kostyuk | 40c | 70.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kostyuk | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd714…8240backed Kostyuk | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Kostyuk | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Kostyuk | 46c | 52.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Kostyuk | 41c | 48.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Kostyuk | 41c | 42.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…52febacked Rybakina | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Kostyuk | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Kostyuk | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Kostyuk | 42c | 27.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 272 | 40.4%110 W · 162 L | -25.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Rybakina | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 333 | 64.9%216 W · 117 L | -19.4wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)this page
- Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Marta KostyukElena Rybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Kostyuk: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.