Fifa International · resolved market
Arda Güler: 5+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99243cf90f5dcf574139ad3de21aba7e2d5adca3fdbc8842d0db990fe1724b21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 67c | 516.78$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…5ec0backed Yes | 29c | 401.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…4822backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 30c | 234$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 695 | 34.8%242 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 53 | 86.8%46 W · 7 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arda Güler: 5+ shotsthis page
- Arda Güler: 1+ assistsNo won
- Arda Güler: 1+ goalsNo won
- Arda Güler: 2+ goalsNo won
- Arda Güler: 3+ goalsNo won
- Arda Güler: 3+ shotsYes won
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ assistsNo won
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ goalsNo won
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ shotsYes won
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 2+ shotsYes won
- Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goalsNo won
- Yunus Akgün: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.