Arda Güler: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x392210d411127555de98b8ed2817f9e56adda6ad643611fa1bbc18bc58b5d9bf

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,366

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,241 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe558…dcd2backed Yes	23c	8,128$1,904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,903.87	158	43%68 W · 90 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	77c	5,626$4,318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,308.81	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No	76c	3,871$2,940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$930.82	327	65.7%215 W · 112 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d96…7c16backed No	77c	3,000$2,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$679.98	116	54.3%63 W · 53 L	+8.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes	22c	1,364$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	454	28%127 W · 327 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd35b…4a53backed Yes	24c	700$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6faf…de48backed Yes	23c	434.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	202	24.8%50 W · 152 L	-15.8wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14e4…3ae9backed Yes	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	79	38%30 W · 49 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	26c	344$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.44	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba60…e910backed Yes	22c	340.91$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No	77c	324$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.52	42	61.9%26 W · 16 L	+3.9wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes	23c	219.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No	74c	210.71$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.84	379	59.1%224 W · 155 L	+20.5wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+12%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No	74c	199.99$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No	78c	197.81$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.82	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No	72c	177.57$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.83	695	34.8%242 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	76c	145.14$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.01	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc56…cbe8backed Yes	29c	140$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	124	35.5%44 W · 80 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Yes	26c	115.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	-9.5wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No	74c	113$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.38	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c73…e2ebbacked Yes	27c	111.11$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf306…4cf8backed Yes	27c	107.12$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	114	38.6%44 W · 70 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3802…1a48backed Yes	24c	104.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	110	40.9%45 W · 65 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	228	36.4%83 W · 145 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa599…9176backed No	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	151	77.5%117 W · 34 L	+13.1wins	+0.09per pick	69cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes	22c	90.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-49%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	16c	90$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed No	77c	89$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.74	379	71.2%270 W · 109 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x265c…dea2backed Yes	22c	88.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb73…4f95backed Yes	22c	88.36$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	95	42.1%40 W · 55 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2f9…f703backed No	71c	79.89$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.95	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc45…14bcbacked Yes	26c	76.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	134	41.8%56 W · 78 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500e…bd16backed Yes	29c	75.4$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	168	36.9%62 W · 106 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb53…2860backed Yes	22c	75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	48	33.3%16 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…be19backed Yes	25c	72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	323	12.1%39 W · 284 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No	71c	68.97$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	288	73.3%211 W · 77 L	+21.7wins	+0.08per pick	66cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65b6…8b4cbacked Yes	26c	65.38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-46%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	77c	55.98$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.02	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x605a…bf3bbacked Yes	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	200	36.5%73 W · 127 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0e1…7b69backed Yes	29c	48.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	80c	45$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f15…a670backed No	78c	40.3$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	190	69.5%132 W · 58 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	66cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…6ab7backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	74c	33.55$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.79	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf37e…2709backed No	79c	31.67$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.68	35	77.1%27 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	72cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.35	548	59.5%326 W · 222 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed No	75c	26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.5	161	65.8%106 W · 55 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	69c	25.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ca…4419backed No	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	81	70.4%57 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	75cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa06…74c3backed No	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	56	80.4%45 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	76cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	75c	21.2$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.3	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	76c	19.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No	79c	14.5$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.97	454	72.9%331 W · 123 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Arda Güler: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event