Fifa International · resolved market
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc6cd2ef46223cc13d26a253fb47e06d1f99e99e90f1a601d449d9c04b8d4d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 76c | 373.88$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 75c | 320.55$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Yes | 24c | 233.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 76c | 203.62$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…178dbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 198 | 23.7%47 W · 151 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 238 | 38.7%92 W · 146 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…feb0backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 74c | 99.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 135 | 30.4%41 W · 94 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x123d…1cabbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 172 | 71.5%123 W · 49 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 76c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goalsthis page
- Arda Güler: 1+ assistsNo won
- Arda Güler: 1+ goalsNo won
- Arda Güler: 2+ goalsNo won
- Arda Güler: 3+ goalsNo won
- Arda Güler: 3+ shotsYes won
- Arda Güler: 5+ shotsNo won
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ assistsNo won
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ goalsNo won
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ shotsYes won
- Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 2+ shotsYes won
- Kenan Yıldız: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goalsNo won
- Yunus Akgün: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.