Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 79°F or higher on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99806d003c1ac031f81b238a72da2110ee7eb2ff456a0896558530df0936da4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 7c | 2,130$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 3c | 512.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 54c | 185.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 79c | 166.32$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 11c | 115.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 20c | 110.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…cfc0backed No | 36c | 107.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…88dabacked Yes | 77c | 105.16$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f70…00e9backed No | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 36c | 67.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 42c | 53.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65ad…ccb3backed No | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 57c | 41.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 29c | 38.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 79c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…40d9backed No | 80c | 16.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 79°F or higher on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 75-76°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 77-78°F on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.