Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ca60824140e7e4554c1b0aba8f1b90b437f8927ff4942cf360a4a6e35035b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 28c | 407.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 259.21$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 77c | 249.61$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 172.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 169.13$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 73c | 154.36$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 145.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 16c | 140.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 139.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 73c | 137.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 26c | 124$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 109.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 31c | 81.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 76.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 65.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 61.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 43c | 57.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 37c | 52.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 39c | 50.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 43c | 43.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 38.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 60c | 38.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 39c | 36.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 36.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 35.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…14ebbacked Yes | 41c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 34.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 62c | 32.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 31.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 31.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 39c | 26.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 62c | 21.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed No | 58c | 19.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 61c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 77c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.