MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99d01beaa2b4deda2f251906c8d32a1cc53995bcbef90771cde3593b3349a0cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Over | 66c | 4,633$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.22 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Under | 34c | 2,200$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 34c | 1,682$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.74 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Under | 34c | 504.41$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 65c | 300$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 34c | 285$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Over | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 148 | 63.5%94 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Over | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7269…bf2abacked Under | 36c | 102.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…82d3backed Over | 66c | 55.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 33c | 46.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…e3f7backed Over | 67c | 46.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marlins vs. Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- Marlins vs. MetsMets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.