Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a183917e2e7356f7722ef426476bac295838aa30284320750c3976947870a97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 3c | 2,562$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 20c | 619.63$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.17 | 247 | 68.8%170 W · 77 L | +25.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 78c | 475.89$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 52c | 271.11$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 967 | 33.3%322 W · 645 L | +27.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 22c | 251$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 24c | 167.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.59 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 163.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 39c | 159.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 79c | 148.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked No | 12c | 140.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 139.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 119.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 12c | 113.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 62c | 110.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 75c | 104.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…5088backed No | 27c | 82.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…1f71backed Yes | 64c | 78.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 77.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,116 | 35.1%392 W · 724 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 46c | 60.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 57.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 51.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 48c | 48.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 43c | 46.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 73c | 40.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed Yes | 79c | 37.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 35.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 63c | 31.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 49c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 75c | 15.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.