Lol · resolved market
LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports - Game 4 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a42dc76ce1ac1a18c7d8b1bb8b46fec1f53f0970a9416720ad4cd116dca4001
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FURIA Esportsof LOS, FURIA Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed LOS | 42c | 6,783$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,834.61 | 164 | 54.9%90 W · 74 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed FURIA Esports | 58c | 4,048$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.24 | 1,258 | 38.6%485 W · 773 L | -61.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed LOS | 41c | 3,655$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.2 | 644 | 55.6%358 W · 286 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed FURIA Esports | 60c | 2,654$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.24 | 1,596 | 53.7%857 W · 739 L | +56.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…cf14backed FURIA Esports | 58c | 2,211$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.71 | 1,005 | 54%543 W · 462 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed FURIA Esports | 58c | 1,725$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.81 | 1,014 | 47.6%483 W · 531 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed FURIA Esports | 59c | 1,589$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.47 | 1,813 | 39.1%709 W · 1,104 L | -30.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed FURIA Esports | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1,029 | 52.3%538 W · 491 L | +27.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked LOS | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2,012 | 58.1%1,168 W · 844 L | +84.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed FURIA Esports | 60c | 901$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.4 | 1,310 | 55.8%731 W · 579 L | +43.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed LOS | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 403 | 47.4%191 W · 212 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked LOS | 40c | 525$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 274 | 47.8%131 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed FURIA Esports | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 300 | 50.3%151 W · 149 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…e9cabacked LOS | 42c | 450.17$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.85 | 1,540 | 62.6%964 W · 576 L | +158.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked LOS | 5c | 449.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed LOS | 45c | 430$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.4 | 664 | 45.6%303 W · 361 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5f…8a9bbacked LOS | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed FURIA Esports | 58c | 382.75$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.76 | 348 | 37.4%130 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…4089backed FURIA Esports | 59c | 293.22$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed FURIA Esports | 59c | 220$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 397 | 50.1%199 W · 198 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked LOS | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 308 | 56.5%174 W · 134 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed FURIA Esports | 53c | 189.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 2,910 | 38.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L | -120.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…3c23backed LOS | 44c | 152.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 280 | 42.5%119 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked LOS | 39c | 128.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 431 | 38.1%164 W · 267 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed FURIA Esports | 57c | 105.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…a86ebacked LOS | 52c | 80.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 264 | 48.5%128 W · 136 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked FURIA Esports | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1,189 | 48.1%572 W · 617 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed LOS | 40c | 68.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed LOS | 31c | 34.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…b39ebacked LOS | 45c | 33.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports - Game 4 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup PlayoffsFURIA Esports won
- LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 WinnerLOS won
- LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 WinnerFURIA Esports won
- LoL: LOS vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 WinnerFURIA Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.