Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa19f80e55856169e25082cf67b48f95bff269671aaef6a3187ba0f69076d59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,469 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 1c | 7,302$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 1c | 4,988$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,114$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 67c | 601.21$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.37 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 3c | 457.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 43c | 370.2$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 59c | 256.78$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.95 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 209.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 208.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 49c | 170.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…ae0bbacked Yes | 66c | 151.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 148$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 123.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 108.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 107.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 77.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 24c | 72.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 45c | 62.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…06e7backed Yes | 72c | 57.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 57.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 54.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 56c | 53.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 50c | 52.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…4326backed Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 32c | 50.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…c7d5backed Yes | 67c | 49.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 41c | 47.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b93…0353backed Yes | 43c | 46.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 42c | 44.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 41.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 48c | 41.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 60c | 41.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…f080backed Yes | 75c | 39.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 39.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 53c | 38.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3c…9ed9backed Yes | 55c | 36.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed Yes | 41c | 36.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 50c | 36.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 35.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…8d31backed Yes | 37c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 39c | 32.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 63c | 31.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 42c | 31.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 73c | 27.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 69c | 27.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 38c | 26.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 70c | 26.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe492…23e2backed Yes | 64c | 23.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fa…aa29backed No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.