Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe83e0ca9382d3e559450c2905f781cb018c3d65c74f6d9f5be39073450b7b165
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,736 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 1c | 7,312$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 10c | 552.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked Yes | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…145cbacked No | 56c | 450$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 343$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 28c | 260.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.97 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 69c | 219.95$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 216.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 199.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 39c | 187.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.84 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 17c | 178.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.44 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…5c5cbacked Yes | 45c | 176.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 124.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 31c | 123.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 116.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 115.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 40c | 115$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 111.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 28c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 39c | 101$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 98.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 20c | 92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed No | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 78.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 77.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…4987backed No | 58c | 68.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 29c | 67.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 67.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 35c | 66.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 49c | 65.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 46c | 64.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 37c | 62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 38c | 60.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 39c | 51.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked Yes | 37c | 47.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 45.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 44.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 71c | 43.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 35c | 42.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 69c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 47c | 31.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 30.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3c…9ed9backed Yes | 43c | 27.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…3c1ebacked No | 73c | 27.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -49%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed No | 59c | 25.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 24.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 61c | 23.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 23.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 62c | 21.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 19.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.