Tennis · resolved market
Chisinau: Hugo Grenier vs Luca Nardi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ae51adf340f442c2201fc186115cb6aff5a21019212d0717f81e5ee1635a631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luca Nardiof Hugo Grenier, Luca Nardi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hugo Grenier | 15c | 3,542$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.04 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Luca Nardi | 77c | 744.08$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Luca Nardi | 69c | 730.55$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.23 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Hugo Grenier | 16c | 593.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Hugo Grenier | 29c | 507.42$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.36 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Luca Nardi | 70c | 500$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Luca Nardi | 80c | 434.45$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Hugo Grenier | 24c | 421.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 429 | 30.5%131 W · 298 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Hugo Grenier | 19c | 399.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Hugo Grenier | 20c | 382.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Hugo Grenier | 8c | 281.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1435backed Hugo Grenier | 11c | 248.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 390 | 35.9%140 W · 250 L | -61.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hugo Grenier | 18c | 224.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Hugo Grenier | 27c | 215.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Luca Nardi | 78c | 180.48$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Hugo Grenier | 27c | 178.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hugo Grenier | 28c | 163.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Luca Nardi | 69c | 130.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 302 | 25.8%78 W · 224 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Luca Nardi | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Hugo Grenier | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 29.6%45 W · 107 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Hugo Grenier | 8c | 123$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…eee6backed Hugo Grenier | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 318 | 41.8%133 W · 185 L | -16.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Luca Nardi | 77c | 104.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Luca Nardi | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Luca Nardi | 65c | 88.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Hugo Grenier | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -21.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Hugo Grenier | 27c | 84.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782d…8211backed Luca Nardi | 67c | 60.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 704 | 56.8%400 W · 304 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Luca Nardi | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Luca Nardi | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Hugo Grenier | 21c | 47.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Luca Nardi | 69c | 47.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…dea8backed Luca Nardi | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Luca Nardi | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 225 | 40.4%91 W · 134 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Luca Nardi | 78c | 41.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Luca Nardi | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Luca Nardi | 64c | 35.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Luca Nardi | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b31…b2a3backed Luca Nardi | 80c | 22.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Luca Nardi | 69c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Luca Nardi | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.