Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aeee431bd9980f3903c1d103c31936de2f33b45aee81471c7e8ef843c3c6fc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac20…a68abacked Yes | 55c | 555.86$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 47c | 299.02$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 45c | 277$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 46c | 236.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 46c | 223.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Yes | 54c | 166.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…13d3backed Yes | 54c | 139.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 134.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 46c | 129.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Yes | 54c | 126.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…3289backed Yes | 51c | 108.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…bb76backed Yes | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 53c | 92.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 45c | 48.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…4ff3backed Yes | 53c | 30.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli leading at halftime?this page
- SSC Napoli vs. US Cremonese: Draw at halftime?No won
- US Cremonese leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.