Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b0a379b060a14d6c8db7dba5f27fdce6939e9ae9544272c04d1b6e75935af10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 14c | 1,022$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 594.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 19c | 533.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 12c | 498.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 315.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed Yes | 8c | 256.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 19c | 253.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 21c | 243.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 228.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 197.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 7c | 176.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 158 | 30.4%48 W · 110 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 8c | 176.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 172.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 158.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 28c | 141.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 23c | 135.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 118.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 9c | 109.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 26c | 97.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 25c | 95.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 24c | 83.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 76c | 81.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 161 | 66.5%107 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 32c | 72.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 62.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 75c | 42.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 75c | 28.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…a968backed No | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 22.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.