Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0774ce3b77e72ab7fa44085c7c4da38615916df7e8ec98f7f5d9e87de9ce8b29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 39c | 1,698$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 940.08$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 779.94$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.46 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 741.05$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.56 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 430.72$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.6 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 59c | 320$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 282.08$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.03 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 278$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 62c | 264.89$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 59c | 263.89$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 56c | 257.02$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 65c | 250$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 53c | 206.55$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 41c | 195.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.63 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 52c | 194.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 615 | 21.1%130 W · 485 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 190.88$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 48c | 184.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 55c | 181.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed No | 40c | 181$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 177.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 174.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 70c | 171.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 170$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 167.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 158.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 51c | 158.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…c897backed Yes | 49c | 150.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 149.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 55c | 144.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 134.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 133.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 125$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 61c | 116.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 114.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 112.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 43c | 111$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 110.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 50c | 103.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 115 | 27.8%32 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 75c | 101$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 100.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 99.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 68c | 98.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 55c | 85.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 65c | 83.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 44c | 82.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 80.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 59c | 80.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 795 | 63.5%505 W · 290 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 28c | 79.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 171 | 31%53 W · 118 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 71.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 70.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 68.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 48c | 63.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 63.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 31c | 62.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 62.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 62c | 62.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 58.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 56.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 55.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 59c | 53.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 29c | 51.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 49c | 46.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 64c | 46.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 50c | 46.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 48c | 44.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 44.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 40.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 59c | 38.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…0395backed No | 40c | 38.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 59c | 38.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 36c | 37.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 72c | 37.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.