Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa844afc882478b234d9d3d848dff66ff0460eb79253b6b76421a294883aa166
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 1,140$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.5 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 29c | 1,072$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.34 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 711.02$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.64 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 29c | 590.77$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.79 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 35c | 535.47$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.71 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 428.86$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 45c | 396.83$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 338.9$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.49 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 62c | 333.52$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 307.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.11 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 289.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.27 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 63c | 257.02$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.27 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 241.51$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.68 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 22c | 230.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.77 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 65c | 227.57$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.57 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 47c | 219.06$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.89 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 58c | 189.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 24c | 182.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 158.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 22c | 156.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 65c | 151$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 17c | 150.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 145.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 141.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 139.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 139.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 135.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 131.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 130.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed No | 60c | 130.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 129.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 112.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 65c | 103.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 102.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 101.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 80c | 96.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 68c | 96.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa4…eae5backed Yes | 17c | 95.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 20c | 95.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…c897backed Yes | 68c | 92.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 44c | 91.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 75c | 91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 90.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 76c | 88.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 88.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 87.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 34c | 86.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 84.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 37c | 81.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 79.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked No | 79c | 77.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 15c | 76.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…00a0backed Yes | 34c | 74.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed No | 68c | 72.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 46c | 70.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 464 | 56.5%262 W · 202 L | +54.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 41c | 60.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 60.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 75c | 59.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 58.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 57.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 56.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 65c | 56.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 36c | 55.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 22c | 55.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa09…ef0abacked Yes | 27c | 55.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 55.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 45c | 54.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 53.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 53.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 50c | 52.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…7d5abacked Yes | 63c | 52.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 52.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 68c | 51.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed No | 79c | 45.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 76c | 42.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…a968backed Yes | 25c | 40.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 35c | 39.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 333 | 39.6%132 W · 201 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 57c | 38.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 168 | 68.5%115 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 59c | 38.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 54c | 37.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 40c | 36.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 72c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.