Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b3a72a4941aa64ecc09bf53b3f510d672ac03c3b3a439a7c8ab6c20974095d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,614 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 7c | 4,748$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.96 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 249.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 61c | 82.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…1fb2backed Yes | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…3761backed Yes | 80c | 47.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 51 | 84.3%43 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…9b3fbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb3…688dbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on March 23?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 on March 23?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.