Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b3fee5fe44b617a59bf2a8b30d3f014627cd19fd4198686faa9b4d03e099987
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amaru Gamingof Chandogs, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Chandogs | 44c | 932.88$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.9 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Amaru Gaming | 57c | 889.93$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.89 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Amaru Gaming | 54c | 888$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.12 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Amaru Gaming | 73c | 827.21$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.21 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Chandogs | 29c | 504.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Amaru Gaming | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Chandogs | 43c | 464.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Chandogs | 43c | 438$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…0c65backed Amaru Gaming | 63c | 315.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chandogs | 40c | 257.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Chandogs | 22c | 229.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Chandogs | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Chandogs | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed Chandogs | 40c | 147.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Chandogs | 15c | 122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Chandogs | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Chandogs | 37c | 91.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Amaru Gaming | 71c | 69.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…71e0backed Chandogs | 27c | 46.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Amaru Gaming | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…2e2bbacked Chandogs | 42c | 34.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Amaru Gaming | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…0d90backed Amaru Gaming | 74c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsChandogs won
- Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 WinnerChandogs won
- Game Handicap: Amaru Gaming (-1.5) vs Chandogs (+1.5)Chandogs won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.