Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b7eda14731b06faedbe98e53398c1529d72990f5251c21cf4806cd6bca139b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed Yes | 77c | 498.02$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 58c | 242.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 203.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…6d36backed No | 27c | 168.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 147.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 137.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 28c | 124.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 25c | 122.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 40c | 118.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 20c | 118.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 64c | 117.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…834ebacked No | 68c | 113.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 111.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 108.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 24c | 100.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…ee90backed Yes | 39c | 95.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 26c | 95.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 85.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 27c | 83.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 54c | 81.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 75c | 68.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…7546backed No | 48c | 53.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 27c | 45.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 49c | 42.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad5…8869backed Yes | 60c | 40.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 62c | 40.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 27c | 39.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed No | 77c | 38.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 79c | 37.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 76c | 30.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…aed1backed Yes | 68c | 30.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 60c | 30.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed Yes | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 77c | 22.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 61c | 22.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 72c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 51c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…92d1backed Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 58c | 18.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.